College Football Playoff
Who wins the 12-team playoff?
Every FBS team rated from this season's results, the rest of the schedule played out thousands of times, and an AI analyst checking the news the numbers can't see.
Most likely national champion
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Simulation results
Title odds
Projected bracket
Playoff odds
| # | Team | Playoff | Champion |
|---|
AI analyst
How it works
- Power ratings. Every completed game this season is fit with a margin-of-victory model (blowouts capped at 28 points, home field worth 2.5). A rating of +10 means 10 points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
- Remaining games. Each upcoming game becomes a win probability from the rating gap. Each simulated season also gives every team a little random up-or-down swing in strength, because ratings aren't perfect.
- Conference championships. The top two teams in each conference standings (or division winners) meet in a title game.
- Committee selection. Teams are ranked on strength, wins and losses, schedule, current poll standing and conference titles. The five highest-ranked conference champions get automatic bids, seven at-large teams fill the field, and seeds 1–12 go in ranking order.
- The bracket. Seeds 5–12 play first-round games on the higher seed's campus. Seeds 1–4 get byes to the quarterfinals, then it's single elimination to the title.
- AI analyst. Before each update, Claude reviews the model's numbers, searches current news (injuries, quarterback changes, the committee's rankings) and can move a team's rating by up to 4 points, with a reason shown for each change. Turn it off above to see the pure model.